《中國稀土市場一周報告》2021年第12期
一、掛牌價
1、南方稀土集團掛牌價
表一 中國南方稀土2021年中重稀土氧化物掛牌價
數(shù)據(jù)來源：南方稀土
2、北方稀土集團掛牌價
表二 中國北方稀土高科技術(shù)股份有限公司2020-2021年每月掛牌價格
數(shù)據(jù)來源：北方稀土
二、稀土市場
1、中國稀土市場評述
本周稀土市場主流產(chǎn)品整體報價較少，氧化物整體報價偏弱，鐠釹氧化物報貨量不多，分離廠惜售，貿(mào)易商謹(jǐn)慎觀望為主；中重稀土鏑鋱釓鈥價格繼續(xù)穩(wěn)中偏弱，金屬報價對應(yīng)但成交一般，磁材對鎖剛需采購觀望為主。
2、市場報價
表三 2021年3月29日-4月02日主流稀土產(chǎn)品報價（萬元/噸）
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
3、市場成交
表四 2021年3月29日-4月02日主流稀土產(chǎn)品成交情況
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
三、市場分析
輕稀土方面：
本周稀土市場鐠釹價格整體偏弱運行，上游分離廠主動報價意愿不高，中間商少量貨源報出變現(xiàn)，金屬廠采購較猶豫，剛需對鎖為主，市場觀望情緒較濃，鐠釹金屬報價隨氧化物小幅下調(diào)，磁材整體詢盤活躍度不高，降庫對鎖，鐠釹金屬成交有待觀望。截至本周五，氧化鐠釹主要報57.8-58.0萬元/噸，主要成交57.5萬元/噸左右，57.8萬元/噸及以上成交承壓，金屬廠57.2萬元/噸及以內(nèi)尋低較活躍，貨源有限。鐠釹金屬方面，金屬大廠鐠釹金屬月結(jié)大廠主要報價72.0萬元/噸左右，主要成交71.8-72.0萬元/噸，72.0萬元/噸以上成交承壓，現(xiàn)款現(xiàn)貨主要報71.0萬元/噸左右，主要成交70.0-70.5萬元/噸，磁材詢低少量剛需采購。
另外，贛州地區(qū)分離廠減停產(chǎn)，氧化物供應(yīng)會偏緊，金屬廠現(xiàn)貨也沒有很多，磁材訂單也沒有聽說減少，那從基本面來看鐠釹為何掉價呢？？磁材下游客戶仍不接受磁鋼高價？？金屬廠倒掛由下至上傳導(dǎo)價格回調(diào)？？我的有色網(wǎng)調(diào)研了解：從氧化物來看，贛州地區(qū)分離廠減停產(chǎn)的直接影響體現(xiàn)時間還未到，反而因為廢料廠減停產(chǎn)的消息影響到一部分廢料貿(mào)易商的心態(tài)，以致廢料報貨增加價格松動，情緒傳導(dǎo)至氧化物貿(mào)易環(huán)節(jié)也開始試探性調(diào)價變現(xiàn)；另一方面從下至上價格傳導(dǎo)，磁材企業(yè)毛坯對應(yīng)接單范圍主要仍在68-70萬元/噸，前期價格持續(xù)上漲毛坯價格在拉漲之后需要時間消化，需要低價庫存逐漸被消耗。鐠釹金屬高價成交承壓，金屬廠采購自然猶豫，尋低對鎖為主，貿(mào)易商也有受到這方面情緒作用試探報貨。
從金屬來看，金屬廠現(xiàn)款采購氧化物，然而金屬大多以賬期或含承兌模式交易，回款需要1-3個月時間，在資金流動層面就需要金屬廠墊入，且現(xiàn)階段保證爐臺正常冶煉原材料成本比之前要多，資金壓力更大，采購氧化物時更為謹(jǐn)慎亦是理所當(dāng)然。
時間再推后，贛州地區(qū)氧化鐠釹供應(yīng)偏緊更明顯，金屬廠、磁材庫存進一步消耗，或一定程度支撐鐠釹價格，因此我們預(yù)測節(jié)后鐠釹或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)區(qū)間小幅偏強震蕩行情，但受到牽制僵持上行仍有壓力。
This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium in the rare earth market is generally weak. The upstream separation plant is not willing to actively quote, and the intermediary has reported a small amount of supply to realize cash. The metal factory is hesitant to purchase, and the market is mainly for locks. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The quotation was slightly lowered along with the oxide, the overall enquiry activity of magnetic materials was not high, and the inventory was reduced to lock, and the transaction of praseodymium and neodymium metal remains to be seen. As of this Friday, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide were mainly reported at 578,000 to 580,000 yuan/ton, the main transaction was about 575,000 yuan/ton, the transaction of 578,000 yuan/ton and above was under pressure, and the metal factory was looking for a lower price within 572,000 yuan/ton. Active, limited supply. Regarding praseodymium and neodymium metals, major metal manufacturers praseodymium and neodymium metal month-end manufacturers mainly quoted at around 720,000 yuan/ton, and the main transaction was 718-700,000 yuan/ton. The transactions above 720,000 yuan/ton were under pressure, and the cash spot price was mainly 710 thousand. Around RMB/ton, the main transaction was RMB 70-705,000/ton, and a small amount of magnetic materials was inquired and just needed to be purchased.
In addition, the separation plant in Ganzhou region cuts and suspends production, the supply of oxides will be tight, the metal plant does not have a lot of stock, and the order for magnetic materials has not been heard to decrease. Then from a fundamental point of view, why does the price of NdPr fall? ? Downstream customers of magnetic materials still do not accept the high price of magnetic steel? ? Metal factories upside down to conduct price callbacks from bottom to top? ? My non-ferrous network research and understanding: From the perspective of oxides, the direct impact of the reduction and shutdown of the separation plant in Ganzhou has not yet come. On the contrary, the news of the reduction and shutdown of the waste plant has affected the mentality of some scrap traders, resulting in an increase in scrap declarations. The price loosened, sentiment was transmitted to the oxide trade link and began to tentatively adjust the price to realize; on the other hand, the price transmission from bottom to top, the range of corresponding orders for magnetic materials enterprises was still 680-700,000 yuan/ton, and the previous price continued to rise. After the price rises, it will take time to digest, and low-priced inventory needs to be gradually consumed. The high price of praseodymium and neodymium metal is under pressure, and metal factories naturally hesitate to purchase, mainly looking for low pairs of locks. Traders are also exposed to the emotional effect of this aspect to test their orders.
From the perspective of metals, metal factories purchase oxides in cash. However, most metals are traded in the account period or with acceptance mode. It takes 1-3 months to pay back. At the level of capital flow, the metal factory is required to advance, and the furnace is guaranteed at this stage. The cost of normal smelting of raw materials is higher than before, and the pressure on funds is greater. It is natural to be more cautious when purchasing oxides.
After the time is delayed, the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in Ganzhou is more obvious, and metal factories and magnetic material inventories will be further consumed, which may support the price of praseodymium and neodymium to a certain extent. Therefore, we predict that after the festival, there will be a slight and strong fluctuation in the price of praseodymium and neodymium. However, the upward pressure still remains constrained by the stalemate.
圖一 2021年3月02日-4月12日氧化鐠釹均價走勢
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
圖二 2021年3月02日-4月02日鐠釹金屬均價走勢
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
中重稀土方面：
本周中重稀土主要產(chǎn)品整體報價較少，氧化物成交價格弱穩(wěn)震蕩，氧化鏑價格較堅挺，目前分離廠觀望市場為主，貿(mào)易商少量貨源報出試探變現(xiàn)，金屬廠對鎖剛需采購，金屬產(chǎn)品報價猶豫，下游磁材詢盤活躍度不高，整體成交未及預(yù)期。截至本周五。氧化鏑成交區(qū)間307-309萬元/噸，309萬元/噸以上成交承壓，鏑鐵報價持穩(wěn)，300-303萬元/噸少量成交，現(xiàn)款300萬元/噸及以上成交承壓，磁材詢盤活躍度一般，成交量未及預(yù)期；氧化鋱中間商報貨為主，940-950少量成交，分離廠謹(jǐn)慎觀望為主，金屬廠金屬鋱報價1190-1200萬元/噸對應(yīng)調(diào)整，成交1190-1200萬元/噸，整體成交偏少；氧化釓詢盤活躍度較低，22.5-22.8萬元/噸成交，22.6萬元/噸及以上成交承壓，釓鐵一次現(xiàn)款成交22.4-22.5萬元/噸左右，成交較少；氧化鈥詢盤活躍度低，分離廠報貨猶豫，現(xiàn)款成交90.0-92.0萬元/噸左右，92.0萬元/噸及以上成交承壓，金屬廠鈥鐵報價較少，一次現(xiàn)款成交90萬元/噸左右，市場成交較少。
The overall quotation of the main products of heavy rare earths in this week is relatively small, the transaction price of oxides is weak and stable, and the price of dysprosium oxide is relatively strong. At present, separation plants mainly wait and see the market. Traders have reported a small amount of supply to try to realize the realization. Metal factories just need to purchase locks. Metal products The quotation was hesitant, the downstream magnetic material inquiries were not active, and the overall transaction fell short of expectations. As of this Friday. The transaction range of dysprosium oxide was 3.0-3.09 million yuan/ton, and transactions above 3.09 million yuan/ton were under pressure. The quotation of dysprosium iron remained stable, with small transactions of 3-3.03 million yuan/ton, and transactions of 3 million yuan/ton and above were under pressure. Magnetic materials are generally active in inquiries, and the transaction volume is less than expected; terbium oxide intermediaries mainly report goods, 940-950 small transactions, separation plants are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, metal plants offer 1.90-12 million yuan/ton for metal terbium and adjust accordingly , The transaction was 1.190-12 million yuan/ton, and the overall transaction was relatively small; the activity of gadolinium oxide inquiries was low, with 225,000-22.8 million yuan/ton transactions, 226,000 yuan/ton and above transactions were under pressure, gadolinium iron one-time cash transaction 22.4 About -225,000 yuan/ton, the transaction is relatively small; the holmium oxide inquiry activity is low, and the separation plant is hesitant to submit the goods. The cash transaction is about 90-92.0 million yuan/ton, and the transaction of 90,000 yuan/ton and above is under pressure. The price of holmium iron is less, and the cash transaction is about 900,000 yuan/ton, and the market transaction is relatively small.
圖三 2021年3月02日-4月02日氧化鏑均價走勢
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
圖四 2021年3月02日-4月02日鏑鐵合金均價走勢
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
圖五 2021年3月02日-4月02日氧化鋱均價走勢
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
圖六 2021年3月02日-4月02日金屬鋱均價走勢
數(shù)據(jù)來源：我的有色
市場總結(jié)：
輕稀土鐠釹氧化物廠家現(xiàn)貨市場報出較少，貿(mào)易商少量貨源報出變現(xiàn)，隨著氧化物價格逐步下探，對應(yīng)到金屬成交或逐漸增加，且氧化物供應(yīng)愈加偏緊，金屬廠逢低對鎖采購，金屬價格隨氧化物調(diào)整，磁材剛需采購，金屬成交價格未及預(yù)期但時間換來空間，待下游庫存進一步消耗，采購節(jié)奏變換，鐠釹價格或?qū)⒂缮现料聜鲗?dǎo)出現(xiàn)區(qū)間小幅偏強行情；中重稀土上游廠家報價猶豫，出貨意愿不高，持貨商少量貨源讓利成交，預(yù)計釓鈥鋱價格弱穩(wěn)震蕩，鏑以穩(wěn)為主，同時需要關(guān)注消息面和政策面動向。
Light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide manufacturers have reported less spot market reports, and traders have reported realizing a small amount of supply. As the price of oxides gradually drops, corresponding to metal transactions or gradually increase, and the supply of oxides is becoming tighter, metal factories Low pair lock purchases, metal prices are adjusted with oxides, magnetic materials just need to be purchased, and metal transaction prices are not as expected but time is exchanged for space. When downstream inventory is further consumed and the purchasing rhythm changes, the price of praseodymium and neodymium may be transmitted from top to bottom. Slightly strong market; China heavy rare earth upstream manufacturers hesitate to offer prices, and the willingness to ship goods is not high. Holders make a small amount of supply to make a profit. It is expected that the price of gadolinium, holmium and terbium will be weak and stable. Dysprosium is mainly stable. At the same time, attention needs to be paid to the news and policy aspects. trend.
來源：我的有色網(wǎng)（Mysteel）
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